Presidential Election Calculator

This has successfully predicted the winner of every US Presidential election since 1984.
[select name="Q1" value="true=0|FALSE=1"] <-- ​Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
​[select name="Q2" value="true=0|FALSE=1"] <-- ​Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
​[select name="Q3" value="true=0|FALSE=1"] <-- ​Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
​[select name="Q4" value="true=0|FALSE=1"] <-- ​Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
​[select name="Q5" value="true=0|FALSE=1"] <-- ​​Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
[select name="Q6" value="true=0|FALSE=1"] <-- ​Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
​[select name="Q7" value="true=0|FALSE=1"] <-- ​Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
[select name="Q8" value="true=0|FALSE=1"] <-- ​Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
​[select name="Q9" value="true=0|FALSE=1"] <-- ​Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
[select name="Q10" value="true=0|FALSE=1"] <-- ​Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
[select name="Q11" value="true=0|FALSE=1"] <-- ​Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
​[select name="Q12" value="true=0|FALSE=1"] <-- ​Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
​[select name="Q13" value="true=0|FALSE=1"] <-- ​​Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Result --> [calc memo="score" value="score=(Q1)+(Q2)+(Q3)+(Q4)+(Q5)+(Q6)+(Q7)+(Q8)+(Q9)+(Q10)+(Q11)+(Q12)+(Q13)"] out of 13 items are FALSE.
Interpretation --> [calc memo="score" value="score=(Q1)+(Q2)+(Q3)+(Q4)+(Q5)+(Q6)+(Q7)+(Q8)+(Q9)+(Q10)+(Q11)+(Q12)+(Q13);score>5?'Incumbent Party Loses':'Incumbent Party Wins'"] 
[checkbox memo="References (Hide/Show)" name="footnotes" value=""][conditional field="footnotes" condition="(footnotes).isNot('')"]From Allan Lichtman​'s Keys to the White House described in a Washington Post article. [link url="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/05/12/this-professor-has-predicted-every-presidential-election-since-1984-hes-still-trying-to-figure-out-2016/?tid=a_inl&utm_term=.a78b7599f1a0" memo="(1)"]
See also: Allan Lichtman's book "Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016" [link url="https://www.amazon.com/Predicting-Next-President-White-House-ebook/dp/B01F4F9OC0/ref=la_B001HPPRFA_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1483508039&sr=1-1" memo="(2)"][/conditional]

2 responses to “Presidential Election Calculator”

1. Mark Morgan says:

   2020-07-12 at 07:46

   I think at least 7 of 13 items are FALSE now.

   This has successfully predicted the winner of every US Presidential election since 1984.
   FALSE <-- ​Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. ​true <-- ​Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. ​true <-- ​Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. ​true <-- ​Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. ​FALSE <-- ​​Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. FALSE <-- ​Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. ​FALSE <-- ​Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. FALSE <-- ​Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. ​FALSE <-- ​Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. true <-- ​Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. FALSE <-- ​Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. ​true <-- ​Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. ​true <-- ​​Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Result --> 7 out of 13 items are FALSE.
   Interpretation –> Incumbent Party Loses
   From Allan Lichtman​’s Keys to the White House described in a Washington Post article.
   See also: Allan Lichtman’s book “Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House 2016”

   Reply

2. Mark Morgan says:

   2020-05-25 at 08:04

   Some of these are pretty subjective. As of today, this is how I rate the keys:

   This has successfully predicted the winner of every US Presidential election since 1984.
   FALSE <-- ​Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. ​true <-- ​Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. ​true <-- ​Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. ​true <-- ​Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. ​FALSE <-- ​​Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. FALSE <-- ​Long-term economy: Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. ​FALSE <-- ​Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. true <-- ​Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. ​true <-- ​Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. true <-- ​Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. FALSE <-- ​Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. ​true <-- ​Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. ​FALSE <-- ​​Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. Result --> 6 out of 13 items are FALSE.
   Interpretation –> Incumbent Party Loses

   Reply

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